Hillary's Last Gasp?

Make no mistake about it. I remain a Hillary Clinton supporter. But I despair that she has lost the Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She has lost the Wisconsin primary election tonight by at least 15% if not more. She may not have organized to win the Wisconsin primary as Obama did but clearly the voters knew her and they decided to support Obama. And, as various commentators have remarked, Wisconsin’s demographics are the kind that, if not unequivocally favoring Clinton, didn’t put her at any distinct disadvantage. It has a primarily white electorate with a substantial percentage of working class families.

While Ohio and Texas, and Pennsylvania, have not yet voted, I now expect that Obama will continue to surge and win those primaries as well. Do I continue to hope that Hillary will be able to reverse her slide in Ohio and Texas? Yes. Do I expect that to happen? No longer. Do I nonetheless urge voters to support her in those states? Absolutely. I was hoping for a smaller margin of defeat tonight that might have suggested that the time and energy she put into Wisconsin during the last week had paid off in making the race closer but the outcome suggests otherwise.

How to explain what has happened? I don’t claim any particular insight. It appears that Clinton did not organize in enough states. I don’t know the details but it appears that she pretty much wrote off the caucus states and perhaps many states that ultimately tend to vote Republican in the general election. But I don’t think her problems are primarily rooted in tactics or even her strategies. Barack Obama has captured the imagination of many Americans, particularly young Americans, African-Americans, upscale liberals, but not only them. A very dear friend who enjoys politics almost as much as I do wrote to me recently in response to my blog to explain why he is supporting Obama. He is a married, white, male in his 50’s. He wrote:

I think what you see is the American people starting to coalesce around this guy and throwing under the bus all the also-ran pols. He is creating a sense that things don't have to be the same, we don't have to accept more of the same with a Clinton or another Bush, not anymore. This young man has talent and an ability to unify people behind a vision that we are all in this thing together. Instead of focusing on cutting up the pie and divvying up the spoils and triangulating, I hear him saying, let's focus and work on what unites us and not what divides us. McCain has some of that, Clinton does not. Of course it is a great risk that he will have set expectations too high, but he is bright and no one expected him to get this far, so let's see. The Momentum game is interesting, but in the end this election is about a wave of expectation that things can be different and better for and between us. I hope he keeps going.

My reaction to my friend’s statements? I think he very articulately captured Obama’s emotional appeal to so many Americans including himself. But that tends to scare me as I can’t help but feel that he has been taken in by Obama’s political hyperbole. I remain unmoved by Obama’s rhetoric and unconvinced that he represents the best choice for president.

The notion that Hillary Clinton is the past while Barack Obama is the future is, in my view, pure nonsense. Her positions on social policy are as enlightened and forward looking as his. If she can be accused of seeking to take a moderate path, knowing that most Americans are in the political center, Obama has been even more attentive to cultivating support among moderates and preaching unity and common purpose, terms that tend to suggest a middle ground. And if triangulation is the act of a candidate presenting his or her ideology as being "above" and "between" the left and right sides of the political spectrum, I humbly suggest that Obama has been far more active and far more successful in portraying himself in that vein. He tacks left on one issue and right on another, appeals to the left in one context but to the moderate on another, all the while remaining purposefully vague.

As to Obama’s constant calls for unity and overcoming political division, what exactly does he mean? Are we to expect that Obama will bring America together on a woman’s right to choose, abortion rights or the right to life? Or on same sex marriage? How about on gun control? Will Obama bridge the gap between blue and red on immigration policy? Or on trickle down economics and American fiscal and monetary policy? Is Obama the one to make the hard choices on social security and Medicare and then be able to effectuate them? Will Obama, most recently exhorting his followers to join him to change the world, resolve the Israeli-Arab dispute, eliminate al Qaida, bring peace between India and Pakistan, restore America to hegemony vis-à-vis China and other parts of an economically surging Asia? Frankly, I doubt it. Do I believe Hillary will accomplish such worthy goals? No, but she is not campaigning on a platform of changing the world.

I’m not opposed to optimism when it comes to problem solving. But I find Obama’s rhetoric short on answers and long on buzzwords. Effectuating real change is enormously difficult. It takes much less for groups to maintain the status quo than to alter it. Change usually involves conflict and struggle. But to hear Obama talk of it, change is incredibly simple. Join his camp, vote for his election and you’re on the way to a better world. I’m sorry if I remain incredulous. Will Democratic voters in Ohio and Texas come to their senses and vote for Hillary? I hope so but I’ve begun to seriously doubt it.⌂

Voting on the Basis of Race

Is it permissible to vote for a candidate because of his or her race or gender but not permissible to vote against a candidate because of his or her race or gender? Is it particularly permissible when the voter and the candidate are both of the same minority community? This doesn’t seem to me to be merely an academic question as more and more black politicians who are superdelegates are turning from commitments to Hillary Clinton to support for Barack Obama.

The New York Times reports today (“Black Leader, A Clinton Ally, Tilts Toward Obama,” NYTimes, Zeleny and Healy, Feb. 15, 2008) that John Lewis, a highly respected and legendary black civil rights leader who committed to Hillary last year, now plans to cast his vote for Barack Obama. “‘In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,’ said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. ‘Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.’ Mr. Lewis, who carries great influence among other members of Congress, disclosed his decision in an interview in which he said that as a superdelegate he could ‘never, ever do anything to reverse the action’ of the voters of his district, who overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama.”

To be sure, this switch is understandable. Black leaders not supporting a black candidate for president who not only now has overwhelming support among black voters but is also doing well among white voters? How does that look? It appears these politicians gave their support to Hillary at a time when they didn’t think Obama had any chance to become a viable candidate. Now that he has shown himself to be competitive, with a real chance to become the nominee, their racial pride and concern with not being out of step with members of their own community have come to the fore. But it appears these black superdelegates are taking an easy way out. Instead of talking of their own sense of black pride as a motivating force for their abandonment of Hillary for Obama, according to the Times article, Lewis (and others) are attributing it to not wanting to go against the wishes of their constituents or even reasons of political expediency, e.g., “in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.”

This situation reminds me to some extent of that time during the 1960’s, when I was in my 20’s, when groups of black college students wanted to live in segregated college dormitories, segregated as in limited to blacks. The question at that time was whether this was little more than racism in reverse or whether it was something different – an effort by black students to find and forge a new black identity by living among a critical mass of their own race. This was not immoral discrimination on the part of blacks, it was claimed, because it was not invidious. Those wanting to live among “their own” did not look down upon the others. Rather, the argument ran, this desire to live apart grew out of a history of slavery and racism and represented only a positive sentiment and effort among blacks to find themselves, to build a new, stronger self-identity. That was then, this is now.

While Barack Obama reminds me in some ways of the attractive, bright, articulate Stokely Carmichael in his earlier civil rights years when Carmichael was committed to integration and non-violence, I am in no way seeking to suggest, either expressly or impliedly, that Obama represents or seeks to be a “black” candidate. On the contrary, he has sought to keep his distance from being identified in any such way. He cannot win otherwise. But, he certainly has sought to win widespread support among the black community and has taken steps over the months to combat any perception or claims that he “is not black enough.” More to the point, he is benefiting from and, I would suggest, eager to encourage a surge of black pride in his candidacy that has not only meant electoral support from 80 to 90% of African-American voters in the primaries but now support among black superdelegates at one time committed to Hillary Clinton. Surely these voters, and superdelegates, are making political decisions on the basis of their race. Is that to be condemned, applauded, disregarded or discounted? While I fully understand the phenomenon, it gives me concern.⌂

Momentum

Obama is on a roll, having won victories in Democratic caucuses in Washington State, Nebraska, and Maine and a primary in Louisiana this past weekend and seemingly poised to triumph in primaries in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia tomorrow. All the talk today is about the big M, Momentum.

The New York Times’ Patrick Healy quoted one superdelegate who has endorsed Clinton as saying: “She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out.” Other Clinton superdelegates were quoted as saying they were wavering in the face of Obama’s momentum this past weekend. Most political observers seem to agree that Clinton must at least win the popular vote in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4 if she is to stop Obama’s momentum.

Some Clinton advisers have sought to make light of Obama’s heralded momentum, noting that Obama won Iowa big but still did not triumph in New Hampshire and then trounced Clinton in South Carolina but failed to win the big states of New York and California on Super Tuesday. Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s communications director, has stated that “There is no evidence that voters are voting based on momentum — in fact the evidence is to the contrary.”

Writing two days after Super Tuesday, Adam Nagourney, another Times writer, observed:

But once again — as in New Hampshire — the result on Tuesday did not match the fervor that had been signaled by Mr. Obama’s dramatic march of rallies across the nation leading up to the vote. In that dynamic rests one of the central questions about the Obama candidacy, which may well go the heart of whether he can win the presidency. Is this campaign a series of surges of enthusiasm, often powered by the younger voters who form long lines waiting to hear Mr. Obama speak, that set expectations that are not met at the voting booth?

Or is it rather a slow-building force, one that despite faltering in New Hampshire and falling short on Tuesday in big states like California has allowed Mr. Obama to battle one of the most formidable political dynasties to a draw and will eventually propel him to victory?

Momentum. Does it have special significance in this contest or is it always a key factor? On the one hand, one might expect voters who are deeply committed to a candidate to stick by him or her and not defect in the face of losses to a competitor. On the other, not only do many people tend to flock to a winner but this year Democrats definitely want to win back the White House and seem more inclined to align with the candidate they feel has the best chance to win than with their emotional favorite.

And what exactly does momentum mean in the context of a political campaign? Many feel that Rudy Giuliani failed to take momentum into account in deciding to step back from the early electoral contests and wait until the race reached Florida. He seems to have been counting on no single rival gaining momentum or traction before Florida and perhaps on their undermining one another leaving him as the only viable candidate for the nomination. But not only did McCain make a remarkable political comeback from the tailspin of last summer, Giuliani’s minor roles in the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina deprived him of visibility. It was as if voters felt he was unfairly trying to join a marathon eight miles into the race rather than starting at the beginning and enduring all the obstacles like everybody else.

Then, too, Rudy seems to have suffered from a fate that still threatens Hillary – inevitability or the expectations game. In politics, if not in physics, momentum is in part a function of perception. Do voters believe a candidate is advancing inexorably? gaining strength? or is he or she slipping? losing ground? plateauing? The spinmeisters are constantly busy trying to put their candidates’ performance “in perspective.” Was the candidate “supposed to” do well in that primary? among those groups of voters? in that region? “Success” even among average voters is partly measured by whether the candidate beats the expectations, much as the stock market values a company in part by whether it exceeds Wall Street’s expectations.

Momentum surely has an objective dimension – a candidate who keeps on losing in primaries will not likely be seen as having any momentum even if his or her percentage of the vote steadily increases from contest to contest. But the significance of expectations in affecting momentum can perhaps best be illustrated through two modern examples: Senator Eugene McCarthy did not beat President Lyndon Johnson in the New Hampshire primary in 1968 but McCarthy so beat the expectations that many to this day believe he did win the primary and thereby chased Johnson from the race. In a similar vein, in 1992, Bill Clinton proclaimed himself the “Comeback Kid” after the New Hampshire primary, suggesting to many that he turned things around and won that contest. But in point of fact, Clinton did not win the primary any more than McCarthy. Both Clinton and McCarthy gained enormous momentum in New Hampshire without winning the vote. They both won the expectations game.

Hillary began as the “inevitable” Democratic Party standard bearer. She may well have sought such a label with the intent to dissuade others from challenging her candidacy. But the risk in such a strategy is that if others do challenge, as Obama chose to do, a failure to trounce the challengers undermines one’s electoral credibility. When expectations intentionally made high to discourage others from competing are not realized a loss of momentum and possibly even a crisis of confidence among the electorate are highly likely to ensue. Hillary seems to have chosen to play this high stakes game. Whether she will suffer the consequences remains to be seen. Ohio and Texas may very well decide her fate.⌂

My Endorsement of Hillary Clinton

Oprah for Obama. Ted Kennedy and Caroline for Obama. Maria Shriver for Obama. Arnold for McCain. Garrison Keeler for Obama.

Do endorsements matter? Do celebrity or high profile endorsements sway the minds and votes of everyday voters? I suspect they do at least somewhat. Endorsements may not be key to electoral victory but they matter and in a close election, such as the Super Tuesday contests between Obama and Clinton, they may make a difference if not the difference.

I’m only slightly surprised that no one has sought my endorsement. Well, I jest. I’m not surprised at all. Only one or two friends have even bothered to ask me my preference, although readers of my blog already know how I will vote on February 5.

As a skeptic and former political scientist, I seriously question the reasons high profile personalities advance to explain their endorsements. There are no doubt a few “pure” endorsements but I suspect most are what I might call “impure.” Some are motivated by clear self interest on the part of the endorser. For example, politicians who might be seeking the vice presidential nomination or a cabinet position or something of value from the candidate being endorsed. But I suspect most are motivated by more muted self interest or personal emotional factors.

Take Ted Kennedy for example. Why did he jump on the Obama bandwagon so very late in the campaign? Was it because he felt that the Clintons, Bill in particular, had gone overboard in their campaigning, alluding too directly to race and gender and otherwise seemingly risking a rift in the Democratic Party, as some have suggested? Or was it because his niece Caroline Kennedy shed her political virginity and endorsed Obama, for reasons that aren’t quite clear. Or was Ted acting on the basis of some animosity or feelings of jealousy toward the Clintons for having emerged as a potential political dynasty, pushing aside the Kennedys from that position? After all, Ted himself lost any chance of ever becoming a viable presidential candidate after Chappaquiddick, despite an effort to upend Carter. Is there some jealousy operating underneath the surface? Was Ted waiting until Obama had proven himself a competitor before deciding to take his side? Surely if Ted’s rationale for supporting Obama was based upon his belief that leadership should pass to a younger generation he would have stepped down years ago from the Senate. But, no, he certainly hasn’t done that!

And Oprah? She was questioned apparently just yesterday as to whether her support for Obama was because of his race, particularly given her propensity not to endorse political candidates in the past. No, she said. She was supporting Obama not because he is black but because he is brilliant. Run that by us again, Oprah. Out from the political shadows to support Obama, the first African-American mainstream candidate for president, because he is brilliant? Why is that simply not believable?

And what about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s last minute endorsement of John McCain, after the Governor claimed he would remain neutral in the primary? Well, that’s hardly surprising coming on the heels of Arnold’s last minute support for proposition 93 regarding term limits after he had opposed the proposition in the past. Arnold is notorious for switching directions at any point in time that he or his advisers sense that his political fortunes will be advanced. I don’t doubt that McCain’s policy positions are closer to Arnold’s in many areas but I cannot help thinking that Arnold saw in McCain a winner and wanted to jump on board the McCain express now so that after Arnold’s tenure as governor ends there might be a political appointment in a McCain presidency. Perhaps his family is hedging its bets with his wife’s last minute support for Obama.

Now having “officially” endorsed Hillary in the California Democratic primary, I do feel obliged to deny any impure motives for my decision. Let me quickly distinguish between impure motives and foolish judgment! I have never claimed a monopoly of wisdom and my reasons for supporting Hillary and opposing Barack may be based on mistaken considerations. Nonetheless, despite the drumroll of Obama endorsements on the eve of the vote, I remain unpersuaded.

Despite Obama’s soaring rhetoric and inspiring speeches, I remain unconvinced that he is sufficiently experienced to be the president or that he has shown the kind of consistent good judgment that he so often touts in his stump speeches. Was it Walter Mondale who stole that line from the older woman in the burger commercial “where’s the beef?” to use against Gary Hart? Sometimes I wonder where the beef is when it comes to Obama. I’m as tired of hearing his shibboleths of unity and common purpose as I am Bush’s of liberty and freedom. And yesterday Obama was proclaiming that “we can change the world,” obviously under his leadership. Enough already! Even if Obama has never embraced Reagan’s public policies, I was greatly concerned to hear him adopt a view of the presidency that seems to reflect Reagan and W’s hands off approach to managing government. No, I do not believe that Obama is secretly a Muslim or attended a madrassa or supports Louis Farrakhan, but I do wonder whether his approach to foreign policy might be too similar to Senator George McGovern’s, a candidate I actually supported through the primaries in 1972 but gradually came to distrust, or Jesse Jackson’s, for that matter.

Does my support for Hillary reflect unqualified acceptance of her? Not at all. As I’ve previously written, a year ago or so I said that I would never vote for Hillary. I was turned off by the persona she showed the nation while serving as First Lady and by reports of her personality by some who had been in the Clinton White House, like George Stephanopoulos. She seemed petty, vindictive, cold, calculating and too ideological. Perhaps Bill has a number of those traits but he has had a way of burying them, although his performances of late have been uncomplimentary. Have I now been taken in by a pseudo make-over of Hillary by her handlers? The softer and gentler Hillary Clinton designed to entice skeptical voters such as I? The close to tears episode in New Hampshire, whether planned or not? Other efforts to present a softer candidate? Perhaps. But perhaps she has grown as well, in her campaigns in New York State and now in this presidential rat race. I don’t know. But I have chosen to vote for her on Tuesday. Come join me!⌂

Why I Think the Los Angeles Times Got It Wrong in Endorsing Obama

The Los Angeles Times endorsed Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President on its website yesterday, February 1, 2008. Interestingly, the editorial bears a February 3 date, meaning it is calculated to appear in tomorrow’s Sunday print editions, no doubt for maximum impact.

While I am not surprised that the Times editorial board chose to endorse Obama rather than Clinton, I was a bit surprised by some of the board’s logic or its absence. I confess that my surprise was slight as I recently read the board’s editorial in support of proposition 93 on term limits and found it unconvincing and based on faulty reasoning.

I recognize, like almost everyone else, that Obama is a gifted public speaker, has inspired a following and has excited many during this campaign. He and I are not far apart on most public policy issues and I would likely vote for him in the national election were he to be nominated. But, he is not my candidate of choice and I am one of those who believe that he has not been subjected to the kind of public and media scrutiny that a serious candidate for president should be.

I find that Obama is an inveterate user of “buzzwords” (e.g., common purpose) and slogans (e.g., Yes We Can), not unlike the current president. I believe that politicians use buzzwords more to manipulate than to persuade, and more to appeal to the emotions than to reason. Bush apparently became convinced long ago that using certain powerful buzzwords such as “liberty” and “democracy” to describe the reasons for his Iraq policies and his foreign policy in general would lead many Americans to support him. Obama has chosen other buzzwords that have tended historically to touch an emotional chord among Americans. Obama frequently invokes in his oratory calls for unity among Americans, pursuit of a common purpose, and transcending the bickering and divisions between blue and red states. To be sure, given the impact of buzzwords and slogans, I don’t expect Obama or any other politician to abandon them soon. But I think it’s important to recognize them for what they are and to ask more of our candidates than their constant repetition.

The Times, like others, celebrates Obama as a breath of fresh air, an “inspiring leader” with a “deep knowledge of foreign relations” and someone who will turn the page of history rather than return us to the “political duel between two families, the Bushes and the Clintons.” But where are we to find evidence of Obama’s deep knowledge of foreign relations, let alone other evidences of real leadership, courage and accomplishment?

The editorial board, also like others, makes much of Obama’s opposition to the Iraq War in 2002 at the same time that Hillary Clinton was voting to give the President discretionary authority to act militarily toward Iraq, even if she claims it was not to go to war at that point. But, while Bill Clinton was critically assaulted when he termed Obama’s opposition record on Iraq a “fairy tale,” I remain one of those not persuaded that Obama has shown any particular insight or leadership qualities whether on Iraq or on other public policy issues.

In mid-December 2007, blogger eriposte shared some interesting history on Obama on his web page: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011525.php. I think the credit given Obama for his bravery and insights vis-à-vis Iraq are overblown as are, in my view, his qualifications to be president.

I am also struck by similarities between Barack Obama and George W. Bush, despite their obvious profound differences when it comes to oratory, familiarity with English grammar and many areas of public policy. George W. has none of the charisma, articulateness, eloquence or capacity to mesmerize that Obama has but George W. ran in 2000 on many of the same criticisms and promises about Washington and its political class that Obama is advancing today. George W. was the outsider who had worked well (or so he claimed) with Democrats in Texas to reach political compromise and move forward with bipartisan legislation and he promised to come to Washington and overcome the destructive, divisive partisanship and gridlock between the two political parties, objectives that he, like previous presidents who made similar promises, has failed to accomplish. Bush's representations sounds extraordinarily similar to Obama’s warnings and promises except that Obama has now been in Washington for three or more years and his successes to date in overcoming the blue state/red state divisions and political gridlock are not particularly noticeable.

Finally, in backing Obama, the Times concluded:

An Obama presidency would present, as a distinctly American face, a man of African descent, born in the nation's youngest state, with a childhood spent partly in Asia, among Muslims. No public relations campaign could do more than Obama's mere presence in the White House to defuse anti-American passion around the world, nor could any political experience surpass Obama's life story in preparing a president to understand the American character. His candidacy offers Democrats the best hope of leading America into the future, and gives Californians the opportunity to cast their most exciting and consequential ballot in a generation.

The reference to “race” in this political campaign has been a source of considerable discussion, rancor, condemnation and self-righteousness. Here the Times seems to make Obama’s race (“a man of African descent”) a prominent part of the argument for voting for him. That is disconcerting as are the arguments advanced in the rest of the quoted paragraph. We’ve had African-Americans in high places in the current Administration, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice as successive Secretaries of State, yet that hasn’t necessarily diminished “anti-American passion around the world,” assuming such passion is as widespread as the Times editorial board would have us believe. I was struck even more by the Times’ statement “nor could any political experience surpass Obama’s life story in preparing a president to understand the American character.” What in the world were the Times editorialists thinking? How does Obama’s “life story” (most of which most of us know hardly anything about), a man born of a bi-racial couple in Hawaii and raised for a number of years in Indonesia among Muslims, a Harvard Law School graduate who did community organizing in Illinois, prepare him to understand the American character or at least understand it any better than any of the rest of us?

The Times, which I have been reading for more than 30 years, has been experiencing enormous displacements in recent years -- changes in ownership, rapid turnover in key leadership positions, and sudden departures from its editorial board. I’m not sure who the current crop on the Editorial Board is but I think they need to go back to the drawing boards or recruit more insightful members.⌂

Who'd A Thunk It? And Now Super Tuesday!

Last summer most political prognosticators, myself included, thought John McCain’s campaign for the Republican nomination and the White House was dead. He seemed extremely tired as he lumbered along. The “Straight Talk Express” seemed to be anything but comprised of straight talk or have enough energy to be called an express. The Iraq War continued to go badly yet he continued to defend President Bush and America’s involvement and he spoke strongly in favor of the “surge.” His poll numbers were terrible. At the same time, Rudolph Giuliani, “America’s Mayor,” was glibly making the rounds, talking tough, leading handsomely in the Republican candidate polls, and even garnering some political support from the right, most notably from Pat Robertson.

On the Democratic side, most prognosticators felt that Hillary Clinton would very likely secure the party’s nomination, not because people loved her but because her opposition either lacked her financial resources and reach or, in the case of Barack Obama, appeared to be a political novice who lacked the gravitas at his young age to legitimately run for President.

How wrong could the pundits and other political observers be, including yours truly?

We’re now on the eve of Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, when more than twenty states will hold either primaries or caucuses to determine delegates to the two party conventions. Fresh from victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and endorsements from Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger, McCain appears poised to win big and likely either secure the Republican nomination or become the clear, inevitable candidate. Mitt Romney, his only challenger with an outside chance of catching him, has apparently decided not to invest millions more of his own fortune to run massive advertising in key states that will vote next Tuesday.

The Democratic race has boiled down to a nail biter between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. John Edwards bowed out on Wednesday after finishing badly in South Carolina, the state whose primary he won in 2004 and his place of birth, and Florida, a state denied delegates by the national party and in which no candidate campaigned but which nonetheless held a real primary. Obama, who has raised at least as much money as Clinton, has emerged as a very popular candidate among young and liberal voters, as well as African-American voters, and has garnered key endorsements from Caroline and Senator Ted Kennedy and other senators and politicians who no doubt did not expect him to emerge as a definite prospect to win the nomination.

Most who normally don’t hold back from making predictions are biting their tongues given their poor track records this political season. Many of the Republican primaries are winner take all, which should help McCain tighten his grasp. On the other hand, most, if not all, Democratic primaries are based on proportional representation, assuming a minimum number of votes are won, or on apportionment by Congressional district. In other words, Democratic races are not winner take all so that, for example, even if Hillary wins the popular vote in the California Democratic primary, she will not win all of the delegate votes but only a percentage, reflecting her victories in statewide and in Congressional districts. Most now agree that this will probably insure that neither Obama nor Clinton will secure the nomination this Tuesday. One may emerge as the clear frontrunner but that too remains to be seen.

At one time, Super Tuesday was seen, including by me, as Hillary’s firewall, particularly after her thumping in Iowa. The thought was that she would definitely win big on February 5 so that even if Obama did well in New Hampshire and South Carolina she would be able to stop him and go on to victory. Now most seem to feel that even were Clinton to win the popular vote and the majority of delegates in New York, New Jersey and California, she would still not be the inevitable Democratic nominee given the system of allocating delegates and that many other states, including Illinois, will also be choosing delegates and that Obama should fare pretty well too.

My own predictions for Super Tuesday?! Assuming nothing unusual or untoward occurs between today, January 31, and next Tuesday, an assumption that is far from guaranteed, I expect Clinton to win the popular votes and the larger number of delegates in New York, New Jersey and California, to do better overall than Obama, but nonetheless not to win so impressively that there will be significant pressure on Obama to concede in order to preserve a semblance of party unity. Rather, I expect him to continue his campaign in a rigorous way, particularly given the animosity that has developed between both Clintons and Obama and their respective camps; Obama’s charismatic style, inspirational speechmaking and the significant following Obama has amongst the younger generation and blacks of all ages; and his sense that this is the best chance for him to secure the nomination, not what might possibly be eight years in the future. Increasingly people are talking about Obama as the center of a movement rather than merely a candidate and I think that whole development will assure that the contest goes on and possibly result in his nomination.

But, as for me, I will be voting for Hillary. While a bit more than a year ago I said that I would never vote for Hillary Clinton, that prediction too has proven inaccurate.⌂

Race, Gender and Religion in the 2008 Election

In the aftermath of Barack Obama’s strong victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary, where he garnered 55% of the vote, including 80% of the black vote, male and female, but only 24% of the white vote, questions are being raised anew about the role and significance of race in this year’s presidential election. Should race matter? Does race matter? I offer some of my thoughts.

The Clintons, Bill in particular, are being accused of “playing the race card” in South Carolina, trying to marginalize Barack Obama by polarizing voters around race and characterizing him as “the black candidate” while then suggesting, directly or indirectly, that a black candidate cannot win the presidency. None other than Dick Morris, a former advisor to Bill Clinton but one of his and Hillary’s most savage critics for the last many years and a frequent guest on Fox Cable News, has suggested as much and others, far less partisan and not necessarily critics of the Clintons, have also expressed concern. An ABC correspondent, Jake Tapper, indicates that after Obama’s victory in South Carolina Bill Clinton compared it to Jesse Jackson’s victories when he ran for president without being asked about Jackson, presumably to again suggest that Obama, like Jackson, was a black candidate rather than a candidate who happens to be black.

I have not been entirely pleased with Bill Clinton’s presence on the campaign trail these last several weeks despite having supported him during his presidency and beyond. His larger than life persona tends to dwarf his wife’s presence and voice and he has tended toward making sweeping comments that have been extremely harsh about Obama. There may be large kernels of truth in a good part of what Bill Clinton has said, in terms of Obama’s voting record on Iraq and his inexperience, but the way Clinton has worded things has come across as demeaning, harsh and mud-slinging, not only not traits most Americans wish to associate with a former president but in a delivery style that has tended to repel a good number of African-American and young voters and, on occasion, me.

But let us not be so naïve as to think that race, as well as gender, are not important factors in the Democratic nominating process, and one of those factors will be very significant in the national election. This would be the case no matter what Bill Clinton has been saying. Interestingly, in the South Carolina Democratic primary, Hillary won a majority of white women voters, Edwards won a majority of white male voters, and Obama won 80% of black voters, male or female. And it isn’t as if Obama or his supporters haven’t taken advantage of the fact that he is black and is seen as the first “mainstream” African-American candidate to have a real chance at the nomination in his campaign.

As many remarked, Obama’s victory speech after the Iowa primaries was laced with phrases (“‘it’ couldn’t be done”) that alluded to his being African-American without ever uttering the word. After his defeat in the New Hampshire primary when polls taken only a day before the voting had him winning, more than one Obama supporter referred to the “Bradley effect” in suggesting that many white voters may well have voiced support for Obama in polls but secretly voted against him because of his race. Was invoking the “Bradley effect” an attempt by some Obama supporters to shame white voters into voting for an African-American as a way of disproving any racist sentiments? And, surely, Obama played up his own African-American heritage in front of black audiences in South Carolina. That is not necessarily to say Obama should not do so or that it is unfair of him to do so. After all, Hillary Clinton has referred to her gender in inviting support from female voters. But it is to question the assertion that the Clintons have injected race into the primaries and that Obama and his supporters have completely resisted any such approach.

I was bemused by Obama’s response during the South Carolina debate to the question asked him about Toni Morrison’s famous statement that Bill Clinton was "our first black president, blacker than any actual black person who could ever be elected in our children's lifetime." Obama remarked: "I have to say that, you know, I would have to, you know, investigate more of Bill's dancing abilities. You know, and some of this other stuff before I accurately judge whether he was in fact a brother."

“A brother” seems a particularly African-American expression of relatedness (Jews might talk about being “a member of the ‘tribe’”) and I’m sure that’s exactly how Obama meant it to sound to the heavily African-American audience. But how does it play to non-blacks? The other night Obama presented Letterman’s famous top 10 list, this time Obama’s top 10 campaign promises. Promise number one? Obama said: “Three words.” No, the three words were not his current campaign slogan “Yes we can.” Rather, they were “Vice President Oprah.” Well, there’s no missing the fact that Oprah is a black woman, one whose appeal clearly surmounts and surpasses her race. Was this Obama once again reaching out to an American black icon with whom to identify and hopefully have others identify him with?

I just watched a video of Obama’s victory speech after the South Carolina primary. Unlike any of the others seeking the Democratic or Republican nominations, Obama seems to prepare primary victory speeches as if they were presidential inaugural addresses or at least akin to his address to the Democratic Convention several years ago. More credit to him perhaps but they certainly lack any spontaneity or have much peculiarity to the specific primary venue in which he delivers them. In any case, apropos of my discussion here of the race issue, I was struck by what a commentator had stated yesterday: the audience directly behind Obama that tended to be captured in the camera during close-ups of the candidate was almost entirely white. There were a few black faces among a sea of white men and women. Clearly this was intentional; but the group surely was not a random sample of those in attendance, let alone of those who supported his candidacy in South Carolina. Again, a permissible campaign tactic but not one devoid of calculations of race; quite the contrary.

It is evident then that race and gender are important factors in this election and religion, at least when it comes to the Republican contest, is also at play. Americans are quite capable of discerning that Hillary would be the first female president and that Obama would be the first African-American president. (I should acknowledge here that there may be some who feel that since Obama is the offspring of a black father and a white mother that to speak of him as “African-American” or black is not entirely accurate and may itself be a racist statement. But Obama’s own comment in response to the Morrison question suggests he identifies himself as an African-American.) Further, Republicans and others are aware that Mitt Romney is a Mormon and Mike Huckabee an evangelical Christian.

Democrats, hungry for victory in the general election, no doubt will consider whether Obama’s race or Hillary’s gender may affect either of their chances to win that election. Are those “unfair” factors to take into consideration? Is one automatically a racist or a misogynist for thinking about those factors? Should a Democrat considering how to vote or to whom to make a campaign donation disregard Obama’s race and Hillary’s gender and how either may affect a final election in making those decisions?

I think that a voter should not take a candidate’s race, gender or religion into account in evaluating how “good” a candidate is (evaluating “on the merits”) – what kind of leader he or she will make; what policies he or she will advocate; how capable he or she will be in inspiring Americans to work together and productively; how able he or she will be to confront America’s problems in light of his or her experience and track record. But I even have difficulty crafting this statement because the race, gender and/or religion of a candidate may be relevant in various ways.

I believe that a voter is entitled to take into consideration how those factors – race, gender, religion – may affect other voters and the outcome of elections (the electability of a candidate) in making his or her own decisions. Might that be a subtle distinction that a biased person could use to justify his or her own discriminatory animus? Yes. But it’s still a distinction that I believe is important. (While issues of race, gender and religion were not relevant, this distinction between first making one’s own voting choice “on the merits” but then taking into account how others may vote before finally deciding how to vote may be illustrated by reference to the 2000 election. I wish more Naderites had considered Nader’s electability more and the implications for the country of not voting for Gore in 2000.)

Further, I believe a voter is entitled to consider how a candidate’s race, gender or religion may affect the candidate’s ability to lead the country and the candidate’s own choices of policy and personnel. Were a female (or male) candidate to demonstrate a leaning toward women that a voter found unfair and inappropriate or were a candidate of a particular religious persuasion to demonstrate a leaning toward the role of religion in American public life that a voter found repellant and inappropriate, it might well be perfectly appropriate for that voter to vote against such a candidate (assuming the voter’s own perceptions were not mired in and skewed by discriminatory animus).

Former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, when confronted with defining “obscenity” in Jacobellis v. Ohio (1964), wrote: "I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [hard-core pornography]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that."

For some it may be easy to clearly and analytically define what role race, gender and religion should or should not play in a national election or in politics in general. I am not in that group. I think it is difficult to define with specificity when race, gender and religion have a legitimate place in making voting decisions and when they do not. But, when talking about the inappropriate use of race, gender and/or religion in this election, I am comfortable borrowing from Potter Stewart to say I know it when I see it. I’ll let each of you judge whether you’ve already seen it. Suffice to say I am concerned.⌂